{"id":81878,"date":"2024-04-26T06:24:11","date_gmt":"2024-04-26T06:24:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/globalroadtechnology.com\/\/?p=81878"},"modified":"2024-05-17T05:42:41","modified_gmt":"2024-05-17T05:42:41","slug":"australia-energy-resource-sectors-forecast-2023-2029","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/globalroadtechnology.com\/australia-energy-resource-sectors-forecast-2023-2029\/","title":{"rendered":"The Long View: Australia’s Latest Resource and Energy Forecast"},"content":{"rendered":"

In the game of wealth generation, Australia\u2019s resources and energy sectors are star players.<\/span><\/p>\n

Every quarter, The Department of Industry, Science, and Resources releases a report outlining the industry’s current state and future projections.<\/span><\/p>\n

Contributing a substantial 13.4% to the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), the performance of Australia\u2019s mining sector remains in the spotlight as a real lynchpin in the domestic economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

The latest report is out, and in this article, we\u2019ll explore its findings across various commodities and global trends.<\/span><\/p>\n

So, without further ado, let\u2019s explore the details!<\/span><\/p>\n

Export Forecast Summary<\/span><\/h2>\n

At the highest level, Australian resource and energy exports are indicated to be $417 billion in 2023\u201324.<\/span><\/p>\n

Looking ahead to the next financial period, in 2024\u201325, those same export earnings are predicted to drop to about $369 billion, affected by deepening bulk commodity price declines and a rise in the AUD Vs the USD.<\/span><\/p>\n

Throughout the five-year outlook, up until 2029, export values are expected to balance out as price declines slow and the AUD\u2019s value improves modestly.<\/span><\/p>\n

Globally, economic growth remains on shaky ground, weighed down by relatively high interest rates.<\/span><\/h3>\n

However, despite a decline in Chinese construction statistics, the country, an enormous resource consumer, has invested strongly in infrastructure and manufacturing, helping to offset the generally softer demand for resources and energy commodities.<\/span><\/p>\n

While Chinese demand will continue to influence commodity markets over the next half-decade, Indian economic growth, the strongest in the world, is coming to the fore as a rising consumer of resources and energy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Commodity Breakdown<\/span><\/h2>\n

Australian Steel<\/b><\/h3>\n

High inflation and interest rates have influenced world steel demand, leading to weaker industrial output.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, growth is expected to stabilise and increase in ex-China global manufacturing in 2024, with further stimulus-related infrastructure projects underpinning more robust steel demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

World steel production remained flat in 2023 but is expected to grow by 2% in 2024 and 2025, reaching 2.1 billion tonnes by 2029.<\/span><\/p>\n

The new capacity will support growth in Asia, North America, Europe, and the Middle East.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Iron Ore<\/b><\/h3>\n

Global iron ore demand is expected to rise until 2029 despite falling demand from China.<\/span><\/p>\n

The emerging markets in Asia and the Middle East will offset this decline.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prices fell after China restocked its supplies but strengthened in early 2024 due to positive sentiment linked with policy stimulus in China’s economy.<\/span><\/p>\n

Australian iron ore export volumes increased 1.1% (year-on-year) to 893 million tonnes and are forecast to rise by 1.6% until 2029.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Metallurgical Coal<\/b><\/h3>\n

Global demand for metallurgical coal rose by 8% to reach 317 million tonnes in 2023, driven by China and India.<\/span><\/p>\n

China upgraded its rail links, leading to a rise in coal flows from Mongolia. India also became the largest importer of seaborne metallurgical coal.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prices are expected to fall from US$277 per tonne in 2024 to US$185 by 2029. Export earnings are expected to decline to $56 billion in 2023-24 before stabilising around $40 billion in the second half of the outlook period.<\/span><\/p>\n

Export volumes are expected to increase to 175 million tonnes by 2028-29 as mines in New South Wales and Queensland ramp up.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Thermal Coal<\/b><\/h3>\n

Thermal coal markets remained stable in Q1 2024.<\/span><\/p>\n

The 6,000 kcal Newcastle price averaged $127\/tonne this year, compared to $135\/tonne in Q4 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Seaborne thermal coal imports will reduce in the short term due to high inventories and decreased demand from China.<\/span><\/p>\n

A possible La Ni\u00f1a weather event could disrupt the coal supply. In real terms, thermal coal export earnings will fall from $36bn to $21bn by 2028-29.<\/span><\/p>\n

Export volumes are expected to remain steady at around 205 Mt per year throughout the outlook period.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Natural Gas<\/b><\/h3>\n

Gas markets have stabilised in recent quarters, but the long-term effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine may slow growth.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gas consumption is expected to rise by an average of 1.6% annually until 2029, down from 2.5% between 2016 and 2021.<\/span><\/p>\n

Australia’s LNG export revenues will decline from $72 billion in 2023\u201324 to under $45 billion by 2028\u201329, with exports around 80 Mt annually.<\/span><\/p>\n

Gas prices have slightly risen due to conflicts but may ease from $16\/MMBtu in 2024 to under $11\/MMBtu by 2029, thanks to new supplies from the US and Qatar.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Lithium<\/b><\/h3>\n

Lithium export revenue has been revised downwards as EV demand slows, causing prices to fall faster than expected.<\/span><\/p>\n

Australia’s lithium export earnings are expected to drop from A$21 billion to A$9 billion between 2022 and 2029.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, rising export volumes and value-added processing can offset the impact of lower prices. <\/span><\/p>\n

Due to the EV boom, global lithium demand is set to more than double between 2023 and 2029.<\/span><\/p>\n

Despite this, large producers like Australia and China and new emerging producers continue to have significant project pipelines, allowing global lithium supply to keep pace with rising demand.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Uranium<\/b><\/h3>\n

Uranium export earnings forecasts have been significantly revised since March 2023.<\/span><\/p>\n

Due to a stronger price environment, real export earnings for 2027-28 have increased from $1,152 million to $2,035 million.<\/span><\/p>\n

Uranium prices rose due to supply disruptions and renewed interest in nuclear power. <\/span><\/p>\n

They doubled over 12 months and peaked at US$106 early in the March quarter.<\/span><\/p>\n

Prices are expected to settle at US$109 per pound (in real terms) by 2029.<\/span><\/p>\n

Australian export values are projected to grow from A$0.8 billion in 2022-23 to A$2 billion by 2028-29 due to price and volume growth.<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Summary<\/span><\/h2>\n

While we’ve covered just a snapshot of Australia\u2019s export commodities here, the forecast is mixed.\u00a0<\/span><\/p>\n

Some considerable headwinds, combining global conflict with slowing growth, are on the horizon for the sector.<\/span><\/p>\n

Slowing demand for resources and energy in China can impact global markets, particularly Australia\u2019s, like no other force.<\/span><\/p>\n

However, as China ebbs for now, India has begun to rise as a manufacturing powerhouse on the global stage, a role that it will fill further over the coming five years.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Dust suppression is a critical issue in the world of mining and resources.<\/b><\/p>\n

Learn more about GRT\u2019s industry-leading and IoT-connected <\/b>SMART Dosing Units<\/b><\/a>, and discover how we\u2019re driving better dust suppression solutions!<\/b><\/p>\n

Your feedback is important to us.\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n

If you enjoyed reading this Global Road Technology industry update, please let us know by leaving a REVIEW.<\/a><\/b><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

References:<\/span><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.industry.gov.au\/publications\/resources-and-energy-quarterly-march-2024<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.energy.gov.au\/energy-data\/australian-energy-statistics\/energy-productivity<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n

https:\/\/www.eftf.ga.gov.au\/why-are-we-doing-it<\/span><\/a>\u00a0<\/b><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

In the game of wealth generation, Australia\u2019s resources and energy sectors are star players. Every quarter, The Department of Industry, […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":81879,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[115],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-81878","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-industry-articles"],"yoast_head":"\nAustralia's Energy and Resource Sectors Forecast 2023-2029<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Explore the latest forecast for Australia's energy and resource sectors for 2023-2029, covering key trends and economic impacts.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" 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